We are constantly looking for signs that the markets are overheated. It remains unclear how far purchase price multiples can creep before a setback reprices risk. FEG remains focused on select opportunities with experienced management teams overseeing smaller, agile funds, and the private markets continue to offer access to many dynamic industry trends.

Most of the performance data in this report is through September 30, when "blue skies" prevailed. By year-end, however, sentiment had shifted dramatically. As such, private fund investors should anticipate some degradation in valuations in fourth quarter reports, particularly in holdings that are energy-related, credit-related, or valued based on public market comparisons—real estate and infrastructure generally excluded. There is a tricky balance between caution and opportunity, but if the general backdrop remains accommodative, more years of blue skies are possible.

With broad market uncertainty rising and questions of an inevitable downturn looming, private equity investors should find comfort in a recent study by authors from Stanford, Harvard, and Northwestern Universities highlighting both the outperformance of and greater downside protection offered by private equity relative to public equity during a crisis.