The first quarter of 2026 quickly reminded investors how fast the environment can shift. What began with a constructive outlook gave way to heightened geopolitical tension, rising uncertainty, and a meaningful change in the path of interest rates.
Markets reflected that shift. Volatility increased, returns diverged across asset classes, and real assets stood out as a bright spot, while equities and fixed income were more muted. At the same time, key themes like AI and earnings growth remained intact, though differentiation across winners and losers became more apparent.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, the direction of interest rates, and the evolution of AI will remain central to markets. In an environment like this, staying disciplined, diversified, and prepared for multiple outcomes will be as important as ever.
Our key areas of focus include:
- Middle East: The duration and ultimate path to resolution of the conflict will continue to matter to markets. But the uncertainties involved are significant. As an investor, it will be critical to remain flexible without being overly reactive
- Cost of Capital: The duration and ultimate path to resolution of the conflict will continue to matter to markets. But the uncertainties involved are significant. As an investor, it will be critical to remain flexible without being overly reactive
- AI: The massive capex spending, SaaS business integration of AI features, and venture capital financing of AI-native startup businesses marches on. It seems that AI is here to stay. Differentiation between winners and losers will be important. There will be both
Read the full Q1 2026 Portfolio Insights.