Power Plays: An Energy Outlook from Dan Pickering

Explore the resilience and strategic discipline behind countercyclical energy investing as Dan Pickering assesses oil and gas fundamentals, LNG buildout, renewables, and geopolitical tail risks.

Dan Pickering, Chief Investment Officer of Pickering Energy Partners, joins the FEG Insight Bridge to analyze today’s energy landscape through a cyclical, price‑disciplined lens. He discusses the maturation of U.S. shale, the shift to free‑cash‑flow discipline and consolidation among public producers, and the implications for supply growth. Pickering outlines natural gas’s practical role in powering AI data centers, the outsized influence of LNG exports through 2030, and the long lead times and execution risks for new terminals. He evaluates renewables’ improving costs alongside storage constraints, then surveys geopolitics—from Russian flows and shadow fleets to Venezuela’s incremental potential, and Iran’s tail risks—before presenting a countercyclical framework for both public and private markets.

Listen for a concise, cycle-tested framework to navigate energy markets amid evolving fundamentals and global crosscurrents.

Key Takeaways:

Anchor decisions to equilibrium concepts and act countercyclically—add near periods of fear and trim into strength
U.S. shale is maturing; OPEC+ and select international projects increasingly set marginal supply as public producers prioritize free cash flow.
LNG exports will outpace AI in driving U.S. gas demand through 2030, while natural gas is the practical near-term power source for data centers.

Episode Chapters

0:00	Opening
0:40	Introduction to Dan Pickering
1:43	Note: Conflict in Middle East
2:58	Energy Cycles and Geopolitics
4:15	U.S. Shale Maturation
6:48	Capital Discipline and Consolidation
12:48	AI Data Centers and Natural Gas
14:59	LNG Buildout and Global Competition
18:34	Renewables, Storage, and Policy
14:42	Russia, Sanctions, and Shadow Fleets
27:37	Venezuela’s Potential and Refining
33:13	Iran and Strait of Hormuz Risk
37:28	Countercyclical Investing and Dan's View of the Investment Landscape
40:07	Resources for Listeners
41:47	Dan's Hobbies and Fun Fact!

SPEAKERS

Host

Greg Dowling, CFA, CAIA

Chief Investment Officer, Head of Research, FEG

Greg Dowling is Chief Investment Officer and Head of Research at FEG. Greg joined FEG in 2004 and focuses on managing the day-to-day activities of the research department. Greg chairs the firm’s Investment Committee, which approves all manager recommendations and provides oversight on strategic asset allocations and capital market assumptions. He is also a member of the firm’s Leadership Team and Risk Committee.

Dan Pickering

Chief Investment Officer, Pickering Energy Partners

Dan Pickering is Chief Investment Officer at Pickering Energy Partners (PEP), a financial services firm focused on energy investments and advisory services across traditional oil and gas and the energy transition. Prior to founding PEP, Dan served as President of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. and Chief Investment Officer of TPH Asset Management. Over a 30-year career as an energy portfolio manager, researcher, and analyst, Dan held senior roles at Fidelity Investments, where he managed approximately $1 billion in energy sector funds, and at Simmons & Company as Head of Research. He was also a founding partner of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

At PEP, Dan manages the firm’s energy equities strategy and serves on the investment committees for its co-investment and private equity strategies, while supporting broader business development and oversight initiatives. He is Board Chair of Merge Electric Fleet Solutions and serves on several advisory and nonprofit boards, including the Houston CFA Society and Texas Children’s Hospital. Dan holds a BS in Petroleum Engineering from the Missouri School of Science and Technology and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

DISCLOSURES
This was prepared by FEG (also known as Fund Evaluation Group, LLC), a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended, providing non-discretionary and discretionary investment advice to its clients on an individual basis. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. Fund Evaluation Group, LLC, Form ADV Part 2A & 2B can be obtained by written request directly to: Fund Evaluation Group, LLC, 201 East Fifth Street, Suite 1600, Cincinnati, OH 45202, Attention: Compliance Department. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. The information herein was obtained from various sources. FEG does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. The information is given as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. FEG assumes no obligation to update this information, or to advise on further developments relating to it. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. Diversification or Asset Allocation does not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment loss. The views or opinions expressed by guest speakers are solely their own and do not represent the views or opinions of Fund Evaluation Group, LLC.

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